华盛顿(六月十八日), 2018)—Accelerating sea level rise, primarily driven by climate change, is projected to worsen tidal flooding in the U.S., 放置了多达311个,000 coastal homes in the lower 48 states with a collective market value of about $117.根据忧思617888九五至尊娱乐家联盟(UCS)的一份新报告，在未来30年内，以今天的美元计算的50亿美元将面临慢性洪水的风险——这是一笔典型的抵押贷款的寿命。 今天公布的. Roughly 14,000 coastal commercial properties assessed at a value of nearly $18.5 billion also are at risk during that timeframe. By the end of the century, 2.4百万家庭和107,目前价值超过1万亿美元的1000处商业地产可能面临风险, with Georgia’s coastal real estate significantly exposed.
The analysis combines property data from the online real estate company Zillow with a 同行评议的方法 developed by UCS for assessing areas at risk of frequent flooding. 使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局制定的三个海平面上升情景并进行本地化分析, UCS确定了在未来几十年里，即使没有大风暴，整个下游48个海岸线上有多少住宅和商业物业面临长期被涨潮淹没的风险——平均每年26次或更多(或相当于每隔一周一次). 报告中的核心结果来自海平面上升的情景，这是一个在估计家庭风险时使用的适当保守的预测, which are often the owner’s single biggest asset. This scenario projects an average of 2 feet of sea level rise for Georgia in 2045 and 7.2100年1英尺. 该分析还预测，如果通过实现《617888九五至尊娱乐》的长期温度目标来限制海平面上升，如果冰的损失得到限制，有多少房产可能避免这种洪水.
The results for Georgia are quite sobering. The analysis finds that without additional measures to adapt to rising seas:
- By 2045, 6人以上,000 of today’s residential properties, 目前大约有11人,000人, are at risk of chronic inundation. The total number of at-risk residential properties jumps to more than 40,000家到79家,2000人——到2100年.
- 到2045年，这个数字将超过2美元.价值20亿美元的住宅物业(以今天的价值为基础)面临长期洪水的风险. 在本世纪末将面临洪水的房屋目前价值约为130亿美元.
- 到2045年，乔治亚州面临风险的房屋目前每年的财产税收入约为2400万美元. 目前，到2100年面临风险的房屋每年的财产税收入总计约为1.39亿美元.
- St. Simons and Tybee Island are projected to be particularly affected, 每个都大于1,000 homes at risk in 2045 and more than 7,到2100年将有000人处于危险之中. 超过四分之一的圣. Simons’ population is elderly and may be especially vulnerable to this threat.
- 一些拥有传统上服务不足的大型社区的地方可能特别危险. 不伦瑞克, 例如, 那里近一半的居民是非裔美国人，近三分之一的人生活在国家贫困线以下, is projected to have more than 800 at-risk homes in 2045, which would put 20 percent of its property tax base at risk.
- By 2045, more than 300 of today’s commercial properties in Georgia, currently assessed at about $86 million, would experience chronic inundation. 到2100年，这一数字将跃升至约3,000处房产，今天的估价约为4.61亿美元.
- 如果各国坚持《617888九五至尊娱乐》的主要目标——将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以下——那么陆基冰的损失就会有限, 到本世纪末，大约84%的乔治亚州处于危险中的房屋将避免长期洪水, thus safeguarding the vast majority of property values and annual property tax revenue.
Once market risk perceptions catch up with reality, 沿海地区房地产价值的潜在下跌可能会对整个影响经济的银行产生影响, 保险公司, 投资者, and developers—potentially triggering regional housing market crises. 房产长期被淹没的房主可能会发现自己的抵押贷款超过了房屋的价值，或者面临洪水保险保费的急剧上涨，最终可能会违约. 持有大量此类高风险抵押贷款的银行可能会亏损，甚至资不抵债, with smaller banks concentrated in areas with high flood risk being especially exposed. 沿海房地产投资者和开发商在一些沿海地区也可能遭受类似的经济损失.
There are currently many federal, state and local policies that, while originally well intentioned, 掩盖风险，创造激励机制，强化现状，甚至让更多的人和财产面临风险. 市场对短期决策和利润的偏好也可能使高风险的开发和投资选择永久化. 这些有缺陷的政策和激励措施包括不完整或过时的洪水风险信息, 保险补贴, lax zoning and building codes, incentives for business-as-usual building and re-building, and incomplete credit ratings. 确定和改进危险沿海发展的最重要政策和市场驱动因素是必要的, 这是一种强有力的方式，可以更好地保护社区，使格鲁吉亚和整个国家更具复原力.
要查看报告PDF，请 点击这里.
关于长期被淹没的财产的数据的电子表格是可用的，并且可以排序 由国家, 由社区 (delineated by the Census Bureau as county subdivisions), and 按邮政编码排列.
To use the interactive mapping tool, 点击这里. The map allows you to learn more about the impact of chronic inundation on properties, 人, home values and the tax base in specific states, 社区或邮政编码. When you zoom in, the maps become more detailed. You can also click on a specific state or community for more details about it.
对于所有其他材料, including our methodology document, a compilation of interviews with additional experts on this topic, and Spanish-language materials, 点击这里.
第三方通过Zillow交易和评估数据集(ZTRAX)提供的数据. More information on accessing the data can be found at http://www.zillow.com/ztrax.
本报告中提出的结果和意见是关注617888九五至尊娱乐家联盟的结果和意见，并不反映Zillow集团的立场. 参见完整的免责声明 yqoa.sh-fyz.com/underwater.